Physical Environment
“Climate change is the biggest challenge that we face in the world today. It is already leading to significant changes in the world’s physical environment. Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent. Glaciers are melting. Sea ice and snow cover are declining. Animals and plants are responding to an earlier spring. Global warming has already driven up mean sea levels by 10-20 centimetres (4-8 inches) during the last 100 years, and this is forecast to rise by up to another 88 centimetres (35 inches) by 2100. It is a sobering fact that around 100 million people globally live less than 88 centimetres above sea level.”
UK Chief Scientific Advisor
Ah, Sir David King.
To quote George Monbiot:
“At a meeting of climate change specialists, Sir David announced that a “reasonableâ€? target for stabilising carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 550 parts of the gas per million parts of air. It would be “politically unrealisticâ€?, he said, to demand anything lower(3).
“Simon Retallack, from the Institute for Public Policy Research, stood up and reminded Sir David what his job was. As chief scientist, his duty is not to represent political reality – there are plenty of advisers schooled in that art – but to represent scientific reality. Retallack’s own work, based on the latest science, shows that at 550 parts per million the chances of preventing more than two degrees of global warming are just 10-20%(4). To raise them to 80%, carbon concentrations will have to be stabilised at 400 parts. Two degrees is the point beyond which most climate scientists predict catastrophe: several key ecosystems are likely to flip into runaway feedback; the biosphere becomes a net source of carbon; global food production is clobbered and two billion people face the risk of drought. All very reasonable, I’m sure.
Sir David replied that if he recommended a lower limit, he would lose credibility with the government. As far as I was concerned, his credibility had just disappeared without trace. By shielding his masters from uncomfortable realities, he is failing in his duties as both scientist and adviser. Anyone who has studied the BSE crisis knows how dangerous the cowardice of scientific counsellors can be.”
Footnote reference 3. David King, 21st September 2005. Speech to the Decarbonising the UK conference, Church House, Westminster.